Friday, February 11, 2011

The Mubarak Resignation Is Egypt's Equivalent of The Obama Election

Changing one puppet for another ...

18 comments:

Constructive Feedback said...

Brother DV:

A few points

1) The folly of putting your Community Development Focus in the PROMOTION or EXODUS of ONE MAN is fully documented

2) The more important consideration is the focus on what the RANK & FILE does between one "Inauguration Party" and the next one

3) SADLY some people are more interested in seeing HAPPY PEOPLE OF COLOR than they are in making note of the VERACITY and ENDURANCE of the underlying merits of their JOY

4) People who are made "Happy" by EXTERNAL occurrences are also among the population of those who are most easily exploited.

sakredkow said...

I always like to bet on change. It's not always the bet, but more times than not. We're due for a big win.

DMG said...

I think Mubarak's ouster wasn't thought out properly. Now there is a power vacuum. Every pimp and his cousin are going to fight for position.

Better the devil you know, than the (thousands) of devils you don't.

Look at what happened in Iraq, and Yugoslavia before that. The autocratic rulers (Saddam and Tito) kept an iron fist on everything, and kept ethic and religious factions from killing each other. We may disagree with their methods, but they paled in comparison to what followed.

A smart group would have agreed to Mubarak's stepping down, but would have set a time table to adequately maneuver in the background to consolidate a power base. Appeasing a mob, even when they are shouting for democracy, is never a good idea.

sakredkow said...

DMG:

No, it certainly wasn’t thought out properly! Nobody thought this one out. Iraq is an example of one where they said, “Let’s think this one out!”

That whole “better the devil you know” – I know some people were thinking that even in South Africa. Egypt is an uncalculated risk, but if I was betting on it I’d treat it exactly like a calculated risk.

Iraq had the unfortunate involvement of the United States –somebody from the outside coming in to topple the dictator – fix their problem. I know our host doesn’t think so, but unlike Iraq I believe this one is very indigenous. And this is off to a much better start than Iraq was. I think there’s a chance to run the table.

DMG said...

I agree. About Iraq, I was speaking from the perspective of the Bush Admin, rather than the Iraqi people. They fired their man Saddam and ended up fighting a not only a two front war, but an insurgency and had to deal with sectarian violence. In other words they stepped DEEP in camel shit by making not only a tactical, but strategic error.

I also think this is mostly grassroots, but it's easy to sway a mob, if you know what buttons to push and slogans to chant, so on a small point I am in slight agreement...the mob isn't just the mob. There are also mob herders who will want the mobs backing later on. Lots of jockeying for position is probably going on right now, while the mob is smiling and singing "we won" songs.

This same mob will turn ugly when things don't change overnight. I have no idea why mobs thing things change instantly because one man leaves.

sakredkow said...

Just in principle about mobs you are right. A mob is the cowardliest thing there is, said Mark Twain. And he was mostly right, though he did tell some stretchers.

The countervailing force though is the Army, which apparently is very influenced by the USA, for obvious reasons.

But you're right brother. It's the one thing that gave me pause this afternoon, particularly by reports of chanting for Mubarak's execution or death. A mob is about the stupidest thing there is for sure.

But damn, you gotta admit, these people have been on excellent behavior in front of the world. So far, they are showing the world how this is done.

If only one more topples, you can be sure Iran will fold very fast. The Greens are watching this with great sobriety; they really are thinking this one through.

DMG said...

phx,

Influenced? That's putting it lightly. Most of their gear is American made. I saw M1A1 tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, even some of their boots are right out of basic issue. Not sure if you caught it, but I was reading an article about how much of their senior leadership attended our staff level military colleges and have close (sometimes personal) ties with some of our military leadership.

I'm not sure about Iran. Egypt's leadership was mostly secular and largely military. Religion brings another dimension to it...especially fundamentalist religion. I would say they may try. I'm not sure the world could keep their mouth shut enough to let it happen.

Obama knew well enough to not open his mouth as much as his predecessor (or Palin) would have. He get's it that the American stamp of approval isn't seen as a good thing everywhere.

Constructive Feedback said...

PHX:

I think that your analysis is off for several important reasons.

Using Iran's recent conflict as a reference - but for the purposes of having you remember Saddam's Iraq:

1) When Iranians were angered at the election fraud the GOVERNMENT issued a harsh, violent crackdown AND the world's cameras WHERE NOT ALLOWED IN!!!

In Egypt - aside form a relatively anemic counter-force that tried to go against the anti-government protests - the "official" government did use crushing violence to put down the protests.

In Iran the "Strong Man" and the "Strong Government " remains standing STRONG.

Egypt and Iran/Iraq are very different cases.

nicki nicki tembo said...

They traded in depostic Mubarak for the rule of martial law - either not well contemplated or working as planned. Question is who are the true beneficiaries. I'd argue, not the masses, as usual.

Iran next? Foreign agents still have much work to do before they pull that one off.

sakredkow said...

Obama showed some skill through this - not a flawless performance but I don't know anybody who I'd rather have at the helm, esp. if this is just the beginning of a prolonged ME crisis.

@CF: Undoubtedly the Iranian govt has much more of a stomach for the kind of brutal tactics that can deter a mob. No doubt.

The govt. also has the problem that the more force they use the more sympathizers the Greens get. The govt. clearly got the better of the Greens last summer, but there were some significant govt. weaknesses showing, too. I don't think anybody could be sure of the outcome if there are more disturbances this year, particularly in the wake of Egypt.

I have a lot of respect for Persians. And tonight I think a lot of them are looking over to Egypt and thinking "That should be us," - and they know the price could be much higher than the Egytians paid (so far).

But we'll see.

@NNT: It's not played out yet. I think it's a good risk, a good bet. We'll see.

makheru bradley said...

The people demonstrating in Liberation Square didn’t trade Mubarak for anything. As I said yesterday: “Obama and the Anglo-American Zionist Cabal find themselves between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Either yield to the demands of the Egyptian people, or order a military coup.” A military coup it was.

Since they were caught totally off-guard by the events in Egypt the Cabal hopes that the coup will give the NED time to influence the outcome of the eventual election and prevent a much more threatening replay of the democratic election of HAMAS in Gaza, i.e. if the Muslim Brotherhood were to win.

[The U.S. is preparing a new package of assistance to Egyptian opposition groups, designed to help with constitutional reform, democratic development and election organizing, State Department officials tell TIME. The package is still being formulated, and the officials decline to say how much it would be worth or to which groups it would be directed.

The Obama Administration cut democracy-and-governance aid to Egyptian opposition groups in its first two years in office, from $45 million in George W. Bush's last budget to $25 million for the 2010 and 2011 fiscal years. The Obama Administration (obviously clueless and out-of-touch) also stopped providing aid to groups that had not registered with the Egyptian government, drawing criticism from human-rights organizations.] – Time

nicki nicki tembo said...

I should have said before they pull that off again, with respect to Iran. The Iranians are familiar with foreign influences and may not easily fall for the okie doke. Contrary to MSM depictions, they mostly have a gov't of the people. Not the western ideal but better than the Western educated and financially supported Shah they forced out.

All these uprisings are an apocalypse, a revealing if you will. Those that benefit greatly from the current arrangement of things are going to fight tooth and nail out of avarice but fight as they may their fall was predestined and will not be averted. These are wonderous times!

Anonymous said...

Rest easy America, the Muslim Brotherhood is not standing for any election and by Tuesday the fate of Egypt will be clearer. The military will not rule for long, a constitutional judge will join the caretaker leadership. The April 6 Movement & We Are All Khaled Said must come forward now.

Yalla Egypt!

HotmfWax said...

All the world is a stage!

come on People...

At least David Icke told the truth on this one:

" There has been NO REVOLUTION so far - a despicable tyrant has gone, but the army that imposed the will of that despicable tyrant for 30 years is now in charge and the Egyptian army is not only controlled by the US, it is funded by massive American military 'aid' - second only in scale to Israel.

It is true that the army didn't fire on the demonstrators as it would have done before, but it did so at the time that its masters in America were calling for Mubarak to step down, in effect, and for the protestors to be left alone. Why did the US government do this after supporting the tyrant for 30 years? Because they want 'regime change' in Egypt as part of a domino effect across the whole Middle East to advance a much bigger agenda.



Mubarak's demise was announced by his vice-president, the US puppet, Omar Suleiman, the head of the vicious and murderous Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate that as well as controlling the population through sheer terror also accepted Muslim detainees arrested by the US to be tortured in Egypt in ways that would have been illegal in America - the so called 'Extraordinary Rendition'.





And waiting in the wings is America's man, Mohamed ElBaradei, who is on the Board of Trustees of the International Crisis Group of Rothschild front-man, George Soros, and his associate Zbigniew Brzezinski, who specialise in triggering and manipulating 'peoples' revolutions' to change regimes while hiding the force that is really behind it all.

It is wonderful to see the joy of the Egyptian people at the end of Mubarak, but the job is only half done and if it ends here nothing will change. 'Peoples' revolutions' covertly inspired by the money and agencies of George Soros in Georgia, Ukraine, the Czech Republic and elsewhere also has their moments of enormous euphoria when a regime fell, but any revolution of the people can only be judged by what replaces that which is removed.

Others have been deeply disappointed and disillusioned in the past and if Egypt is not to go the same way the focus and determination must not be lost - and ElBaradei must not prevail, nor anyone else who represents the forces of control and suppression.

Out of the frying pan into the fryer is not a revolution."

http://www.davidicke.com/headlines

Constructive Feedback said...

DV!!
DV!!
DV!!!

Tune to CSPAN Book TV Now!! 8:30 pm

Dr Paul Offit is dogging out your "Anti Vaccine" disposition

"How The Anti-Vaccine Movement Threatens Us All".

DMG said...

That's not really new. Why all the alarm?

sakredkow said...

“The conspirators are nothing but corpses,” Hossein Hamadani, a top commander of the corps, said Wednesday in comments published by the official IRNA news agency. “Any incitement will be dealt with severely.”
NY Times "Iranian Leaders Vow to Crush March"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/world/middleeast/14iran.html?_r=1&hp

Cash Rulz said...

I love conspiracy theorist. This is more fun than the ID channel.

Keep it coming. I wanna hear about how this is all a plan to relocate the Middle East's oil to a floating island in the sky.